With 43.5 million tonnes of paddy, abundant for domestic consumption and export

This year, Vietnam's rice production plan is expected to reach 43.5 million tonnes of paddy, while domestic consumption is expected to be 29.96 million tonnes. The remaining amount of paddy is free for export with an estimated 13-13.4 million tonnes of paddy (equivalent to 6.5-6.7 million tonnes of rice).

It is expected that Vietnam is able to export from 6.5 to 6.7 million tonnes of rice. Photo: internet

Production as high as one and a half times demand

As recently reported on rice production plan in 2020 by the MARD, this ministry has been closely working with other ministries, agencies and localities to direct the implementation of solutions to ensure this year’s rice production plan.

Particularly, the winter-spring crop is estimated at 20.2 million tonnes of paddy and is expected to complete by June 30. Of which, the Mekong Delta region is estimated at 10.8 million tonnes, Northern Midlands and Mountains and Red River Delta are estimated at 4.7 million tonnes, will finished harvesting by June 30.

In the southeast, south central coast and Central Highlands, rice is in main harvest, expected to be completed before April 30 with estimated output of 2.5 million tonnes; north central region is expected to finish harvesting before May 30 with an estimated output of 2.2 million tonnes.

Particularly for the summer-autumn crop, the country’s paddy output is estimated at 11 million tonnes, expected to be harvested from June 15 to September 30.

For the Fall-Winter crop, in the Mekong Delta provinces, farming area is expected at ​​750,000 hectares, the harvest falls from September 15 to November 15, with an estimated output of 4.2 million tonnes of paddy.

The harvest crop is estimated to collect 8.2 million tonnes of paddy, focusing on harvesting from September 15 to December 31.

With the above rice production plan, MARD expects that the whole year production plan will reach 43.5 million tonnes of paddy.

Regarding domestic consumption, it is forecasted that domestic demand of paddy will be 29.96 million tonnes. In particular, the people’s demand is about 14.26 million tonnes of paddy (equivalent to 9.27 million tonnes of rice); the demand for processing 7.5 million tonnes of paddy and for breeding 3.4 million tonnes of paddy; for seed and reserve one million tonnes of paddy. Notably, 29.96 million tonnes of paddy has included domestic reserves of about 3.8 million tonnes.

Regarding exporst, MARD said that from the beginning of the year to March 15, the output of exported rice reached 1,298 million tonnes, up 26.5% and cost US$ 602 million, up 34.6% compared to the same period in 2019. It is forecasted, export rice output in 2020 is from 6.5 to 6.7 million tonnes (equivalent to 13 from 13.4 million tonnes of paddy).

Consider regulating rice export

Regarding rice exports, the Government Office's document dated March 25, 2020 conveying the Prime Minister’s opinion has assigned the Ministry of Industry and Trade to work with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and agencies to set up an interdisciplinary inspection team to work with localities and key rice exporters to review, inspect and evaluate supply of paddy, the situation of rice export and reserves and the implementation of rice export contracts to report to the Prime Minister for consideration and decision on adjusting rice export activities in accordance with regulations.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Duong Van Chin Dinh Thanh Agricultural Science Research Centre assessed that if the rice price increases fairly, Vietnam should continue rice exports. This is to encourage rice farmers to increase their income.

“Vietnam is not worried about food shortages because the Mekong Delta cultivates three crops a year, time from sowing to ripening very short. Currently, summer-autumn crop is also less than three months away from harvest. The current concern of Vietnam's rice industry is improving quality,” said Duong Van Chinh.

Nguyen Duc Thanh, member of Vietnam Agriculture Policy Alliance, rice is a commodity that Vietnam can actively supply in short-term cycles (from three to four months). Therefore, when world demand for rice suddenly increases, Vietnam should take advantage of this, at least in the first wave.

If the next season comes, domestic rice supply will show signs of serious imbalance, especially with reduced output due to new weather conditions, it needs to consider regulating rice exports.

"Only regulating exports, and the closure of export markets is an extreme situation. In principle, Vietnam's rice output will always exceed domestic demand. If exports close, it will make Vietnam face the problem of illegal export,” said Thanh.

On the story of rice export, Le Thanh Tung, Deputy Director of the Department of Crop Production (MARD) affirmed: “Given the current production situation, the export target of 6.7 million tonnes of rice is feasible because total output as planned is achievable. However, the most important thing is that competent agencies must be aware of the number of businesses that have signed export contracts, avoiding competition in purchasing and disadvantage for the market. At that time, farmers are losers.”

A report on the rice industry of the Centre for Informatics and Statistics (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) from the beginning of the year until now shows that global rice consumption is forecasted to reach a record of 493.1 million tonnes in the 2019/2020 crop, down nearly 0.8 million tonnes from the January 2020 forecast but 6.4 million higher than 6 the previous year .

Elsewhere, global rice inventories at the end of the 2019/2020 crop are forecasted at a record of 178.1 million tonnes, up 1.0 million tonnes from the previous forecast and up 3.1 million tonnes compared to the previous year. This is the 13th consecutive year that rice inventories increase at the end of the crop globally, of which China and India accounted for the majority.

Large inventories but countries that still increase imports, showing that their cautiousness in dealing with acute respiratory infections caused by the new strain of coronavirus (Covid-19).