Global rice trade forecast to hit record high this year

Recent report by the US Department of Agriculture forecast global rice trade in 2021 to reach a record high of over 48 million tons.

Global rice trade forecast to reach a record of nearly 48.3 million tonnes this year. Photo: TL.

According to the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in its August report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its forecast for total rice trade to increase by 0.4 million tons reaching a record high of nearly 48.3 million tons, with India accounting for most of the increase in imports this year.

The forecast for global rice trade in 2022 has also been revised by the USDA to increase by 0.65 million tons reaching 47.7 million tons.

In which, China, India, Taiwan, the US and Vietnam account for the majority of the upward adjustment in the exports forecast in 2022, while China and India are the markets with the largest decrease in imports among markets with reduced imports in 2022.

However, compared to 2021, world rice trade in 2022 is forecast to decrease by 1.4%, mainly due to Bangladesh's reduction in Indian rice imports.

Rice exports of Australia, Brazil, Myanmar, Cambodia, the EU, Pakistan, Paraguay, Thailand and Uruguay in 2022 are forecast to increase over 2021, of which Thailand is expected to increase the most, by 0.7 million tons reaching 6.5 million tons.

In contrast, the 2022 export projections have been revised to show a decreased in India and the US, with Indian exports expected to fall by 2.5 million tonnes down to 16 million tonnes in 2022 marketing year, but still marginally close to the record of 18.5 million tons from the previous season, and continues to be the world's largest rice exporter.

Regarding imports, USDA has raised its forecast for Angola, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, the EU, Iran, Iraq, Kenya, North Korea, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Qatar, Senegal and the US in 2022.

In contrast, imports of Australia, Bangladesh, Brazil, China, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Vietnam are forecast to decrease .

In which, imports of Bangladesh are expected to decrease by 1.3 million tons down to 0.5 million tons; China imports decreased by 0.3 million tons down to 3.6 million tons; Vietnam imports decreased by 0.7 million tons from the record high of 2021 down to 0.5 million tons.