Shrimp exports still declining

Shrimp exports to many major markets sharply decreased, causing shrimp export turnover in 2019 to fall and making it difficult to achieve the plan.  

Shrimp processed for export.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), after dropping in September 2019, Vietnam's shrimp exports in October continued to decline, but the decrease was slower than in September. Shrimp exports in the first 10 months reached US$2.8 billion, down 6.4 percent compared to 2018.

Vietnam's shrimp exports to the EU market – Vietnam's largest shrimp import market – saw positive growth in July, while the remaining months sawnegative growth. In the first 10 months of this year, shrimp exports to the EU reached US$580.8 million, down 19.9 percent ​​compared to 2018. Shrimp exports to the UK decreased by 15.5 percent, tothe Netherlandsdecreased by 37.6 percent and to Germany decreased by 5.6 percent.

According to VASEP, the EU accounts for about 31 percent of the world's total shrimp imports and accounts for 21 percent of Vietnam's shrimp exports. If taking advantage of incentive tariffsfrom the EVFTA between Vietnam and the EU, and effectively applying the rules of origin, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the EU will have an opportunity to increase from 2020. However, exporting to the EU in the second half of the year can not recover.

The US is still Vietnam's second largest shrimp import market followed by the EU, accounting for 19.7 percent of Vietnam's total shrimp export value. Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US had positive growth in four months from May to August, decreased in September 2019 and saw positive growth in October. Shrimp exports to the US in the first 10 months reached US$548.2 million, up 1.4 percent compared to 2018.

Demand for US shrimp imports from Vietnam has been more positive thanks to reduced inventories and the US is also tending to reduce imports from India, Thailand and sharply reduce imports from China.

The US is the largest white leg shrimp import market. Regarding the structure of Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US, white leg shrimp accounted for 83.3 percent and tiger shrimpaccounted for only 12.6 percent. In the first nine month of the year, exports of live/fresh/frozen white leg shrimp to the US increased by 42 percent to 2018.

The positive results of anti-dumping tax on Vietnamese shrimp in the US in the POR 13 have contributed to motivationfor Vietnamese shrimp exporters to this market. Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US are expected to increase by about 5 percent in the last quarter of this year.

Vietnam's shrimp exports to China in October reached US$56.3 million, up 20.4 percent. This is the best growth among the sixmajor shrimp import markets of Vietnam. As of October this year, shrimp exports to this market reached US$438.6 million USD, up 8.7 percent.

In early 2019, China tightened border trade and also increased imports of shrimp from Ecuador and India, causing Vietnam's shrimp exports to China in the first months of the year to decline.

Since May, China's shrimp import demand from Vietnam has been higher, shrimp exporters have also caught up with market demand, so Vietnam's shrimp exports to this market have achieved positive growth.

Vietnam's shrimp exports to China from now to the end of the year are expected to maintain the growth momentum due to the high demand for shrimp imports from China for the Lunar New Year.

According to VASEP, shrimp exports tend to be more positive in the US, China and Japan markets in the last months of the year when inventories decreased. However, exports to the EU market in the last months of the year have not recovered. Competition on shrimp prices is still a big pressure for Vietnam shrimp exporters in 2019 and is expected to reach about US$3.4 billion, down 4 percent compared to 2018.